Fuel Prices Jump as Global Oil Rally and Cedi Weakness Push Ghana’s Pump Costs Higher

Motorists and businesses across Ghana are set to absorb another round of higher fuel costs from August 1 after a sharp rally in international crude oil prices and renewed depreciation of the cedi pushed petroleum import costs significantly higher, adding fresh pressure to inflation and operating expenses.

The latest pricing outlook from the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC) indicates that all major petroleum products will record notable increases during the August 1–15 pricing window, reflecting the combined impact of global geopolitical tensions and a weakening domestic currency.

Petrol is projected to rise by 7.58% to approximately GH¢15.23 per litre, while diesel—the primary fuel for commercial transport, mining and industrial operations—is expected to post the largest increase, climbing 12.50% to about GH¢17.45 per litre. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), widely used by households and small businesses, is forecast to increase 4.13% to around GH¢16.40 per kilogram.

The anticipated increases follow the National Petroleum Authority’s decision to revise upward the minimum ex-pump price floors for petroleum products, reinforcing a higher pricing environment across the downstream sector. The regulator raised diesel’s minimum price floor to GH¢16.97 per litre, petrol’s to GH¢14.53 per litre, and LPG’s to GH¢11.06 per kilogram, preventing oil marketing companies from selling below the approved benchmarks despite competition within the retail market.

The latest adjustment underscores how rapidly escalating geopolitical risks are filtering into Ghana’s economy. Average global crude oil prices surged 23.25% during the review period, rising from US$71.90 to US$88.62 per barrel, as renewed tensions involving the United States and Iran heightened concerns over oil supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes.

Refined petroleum products experienced even sharper increases, with diesel prices climbing 24.84%, petrol 12.58%, and LPG 12.24%, significantly raising the cost of imported fuel cargoes destined for Ghana.

Domestic currency movements further amplified the pressure. The cedi depreciated 1.41% against the US dollar over the pricing period, weakening from GH¢11.4970 to GH¢11.6593 per dollar. As Ghana imports virtually all of its refined petroleum products, the weaker exchange rate increased the local currency cost of fuel imports, reinforcing the upward adjustment in retail prices.

Although some market participants expect the effective increases at selected filling stations to be less pronounced because several oil marketing companies had already implemented partial price adjustments in recent weeks, the overall direction remains firmly upward.

The latest fuel price increases are expected to ripple across the broader economy, raising transportation fares, freight charges, manufacturing costs and agricultural input expenses, while potentially complicating efforts to sustain the recent moderation in inflation. With Brent crude remaining near multi-month highs and geopolitical uncertainty showing few signs of easing, Ghana’s downstream petroleum market is likely to remain exposed to further price volatility in the coming pricing cycles.