PwC Tells Ghana CEOs to Watch Inflation, Interest Rates and Fiscal Spending as Global Risks Intensify

Ghanaian businesses should sharpen their focus on inflation trends, Treasury bill yields, bank lending rates and government capital spending as renewed geopolitical tensions threaten to reshape the country’s economic outlook in the second half of 2026, according to PwC Ghana.

The professional services firm said boards and chief executives can no longer rely solely on improving macroeconomic indicators, warning that developments in global energy markets and international monetary policy could quickly reverse recent gains in inflation, financing conditions and business confidence.

In its latest economic outlook, PwC identified monthly inflation data—particularly food inflation and imported price pressures—as one of the most critical indicators businesses should monitor. The firm also highlighted Treasury bill rates, commercial lending costs and the pace of government capital expenditure as essential variables likely to influence corporate investment decisions, borrowing costs and consumer demand.

The warning comes amid escalating uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict, which PwC believes poses significant risks to global commodity markets and supply chains.

According to the firm, sustained geopolitical instability could drive up fuel prices, freight charges, insurance costs and food production expenses, placing renewed pressure on Ghana’s import bill, transport costs and electricity prices while weakening the country’s external trade position.

PwC also cautioned that persistent global inflation could keep major central banks—including the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England—on a tighter monetary path for longer. Such a scenario would delay Ghana’s return to affordable international capital markets while increasing the cost of trade finance and external borrowing for both government and the private sector.

The report nevertheless pointed to several opportunities capable of supporting Ghana’s economic recovery. Elevated global gold prices continue to strengthen export earnings and foreign exchange reserves, while supply-chain diversification presents an opportunity for the country to attract new manufacturing investment. The firm also cited the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and Ghana’s political stability as structural advantages that could boost regional trade and long-term investment.

Sectoral Winners and Risks

PwC expects manufacturers to benefit from improving macroeconomic stability, easing domestic interest rates and a relatively stable cedi. However, it warned that rising imported input costs and slower execution of public infrastructure projects could undermine business expansion plans and investor confidence.

Within agriculture, the firm acknowledged the government’s support through initiatives such as the Feed Ghana Programme and investments in agricultural roads. At the same time, it noted that some interventions, including the Poultry Farm-to-Table Project, have attracted criticism over their planning, implementation and overall effectiveness.

For the cocoa and mining sectors, PwC maintained a positive outlook, supported by favourable commodity prices, while advising businesses to hedge against market volatility and potential policy shifts.

In the energy industry, reforms are creating new opportunities, but unresolved legacy debts and financial risks associated with state-owned enterprises continue to weigh on investor sentiment.

Banks and insurance companies are expected to benefit from improving macroeconomic stability and healthier loan portfolios. However, PwC warned that narrowing interest margins and loan repricing risks will require disciplined balance-sheet management.

Construction and real estate firms could gain from lower borrowing costs, although delayed public capital expenditure and rising prices for imported building materials remain significant risks.

Retailers and import-dependent businesses were advised to strengthen foreign exchange risk management despite expectations of recovering consumer demand, while technology and telecommunications companies were identified as among the strongest medium-term beneficiaries of Ghana’s accelerating digitalisation agenda and expanding formal economy.

For corporate leaders, PwC’s assessment reinforces a central message: Ghana’s economic recovery remains intact, but navigating the remainder of 2026 will require close attention to inflation dynamics, interest-rate movements, fiscal execution and global geopolitical developments that increasingly shape domestic business conditions.