Data Discrepancies Cast Shadow Over Ghana’s Mid-Year Budget Review

The credibility of Ghana’s fiscal reporting has come under pressure after the Centre for Policy Scrutiny (CPS) identified conflicting expenditure figures in the government’s 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review, warning that inconsistencies in official data could weaken confidence in economic policymaking despite the country’s improving macroeconomic performance.

The observations come days after Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson presented the Mid-Year Budget Review to Parliament, highlighting stronger-than-expected economic growth, declining inflation, improved fiscal discipline and a buildup in foreign exchange reserves as evidence that the economy is outperforming expectations.

However, the independent policy think tank argues that inconsistencies within the budget document itself risk undermining those achievements.

According to the CPS, different sections of the review present conflicting figures for both total government expenditure and capital spending, without providing any explanation or reconciliation. The organisation says such discrepancies call into question the integrity of the fiscal data that informs public policy, investor assessments and parliamentary oversight.

“The mid-year budget presentation was characterised by data inconsistencies,” said Dr. Adu Owusu Sarkodie, Executive Director of the Centre for Policy Scrutiny.

The Centre noted that one section of the budget places total expenditure at GH¢129.2 billion against a target of GH¢158.6 billion, while another reports expenditure of GH¢136.9 billion against a target of GH¢172.5 billion. Similar inconsistencies were identified in capital expenditure, with actual spending reported as GH¢21.7 billion in one section and GH¢22.2 billion elsewhere.

For financial markets, the issue extends beyond statistical accuracy. Budget documents serve as the principal reference for assessing fiscal performance, debt sustainability and the government’s ability to meet its policy commitments. Inconsistencies in official data can complicate economic analysis, weaken investor confidence and diminish the credibility of fiscal communication.

The findings also reinforce CPS’s broader assessment that Ghana’s stronger fiscal position has been achieved largely through restrained public spending rather than broad-based improvements in revenue mobilisation, leaving several planned government programmes and capital projects underfunded.

The think tank is calling on the Ministry of Finance to strengthen fiscal transparency by ensuring consistency across official budget publications and providing more detailed programme-level expenditure reports for ministries, departments and agencies. It also recommends that future budget statements include clearer comparisons between approved allocations and actual spending to improve accountability and facilitate independent scrutiny.

As Ghana prepares to transition from its IMF-supported bailout programme to a new Policy Coordination Instrument, economists say the credibility of official fiscal data will be as important as headline economic gains in sustaining investor confidence and reinforcing the country’s macroeconomic recovery.