Deloitte Forecasts Inflation to Fall to 4.9% in July, Reinforcing Ghana’s Disinflation Path

Ghana’s inflation is expected to resume its downward trend in July after a brief uptick in June, with Deloitte projecting headline inflation to ease to 4.9% as improving domestic food supplies, lower global oil prices and a strengthening cedi combine to soften price pressures across the economy.

In its latest West Africa Inflation Update, Deloitte said the anticipated decline would mark a return to the country’s broader disinflation trajectory, following June’s increase in headline inflation to 5.3% from 3.7% in May. The firm expects food inflation to moderate as Ghana enters its main harvest season, boosting market supply and easing the cost of locally produced food items.

The consultancy also forecasts a significant slowdown in non-food inflation, supported by an appreciating cedi and declining international crude oil prices, developments that are expected to reduce imported cost pressures and lower transport and production expenses.

“The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Ghana is anticipated to leave the policy rate unchanged in July 2026, adopting a cautious but accommodative stance,” Deloitte said, adding that policymakers are likely to prioritise exchange-rate stability and sustained economic recovery while remaining vigilant against inflation risks.

June’s inflation figures reflected broad-based price pressures despite a slowdown in monthly consumer price growth. Headline inflation rose for the third consecutive month, driven by higher transport fares, housing costs and education-related expenses, although month-on-month inflation eased to 0.2% from 1.1% in May as falling global fuel prices reduced energy costs.

Food inflation edged higher to 3.9%, largely due to increased prices of locally produced commodities such as ginger, as well as higher transport and energy costs. Non-food inflation accelerated more sharply to 6.3%, reflecting rising service-sector costs, including housing, rent, transport and school fees.

Transport recorded the highest acceleration among key expenditure categories, with inflation surging to 9.1% after a nationwide 20% increase in public transport fares implemented in early June. Education services inflation climbed to 8.7%, while restaurants and accommodation services registered 8.2%, highlighting persistent cost pressures within Ghana’s service economy.

Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels remained among the largest contributors to inflation, although the category’s inflation rate moderated to 7.9% from 11.8% following reductions in utility tariffs during the second quarter of the year.

Locally produced goods continued to account for the overwhelming share of inflationary pressures, representing 86.6% of headline inflation. Inflation for domestic products rose to 6.7%, compared with 2.3% for imported goods, underscoring the dominant influence of local supply conditions on Ghana’s price dynamics.

Deloitte’s latest outlook suggests that the combination of seasonal food supply improvements, easing imported inflation and exchange-rate stability could help restore Ghana’s disinflation momentum, strengthening expectations that inflation will remain within the Bank of Ghana’s target range while providing a more supportive environment for economic growth during the second half of 2026.