Publican AI lifts customs receipts to GH¢6.1bn as GRA turns to technology to close tax gaps

The Ghana Revenue Authority has reported a sharp increase in customs collections following the deployment of Publican AI, its artificial intelligence-powered system designed to strengthen import valuation, detect irregularities and improve compliance at the country’s ports.

Customs revenue reached GH¢6.1bn in July 2026, according to GRA Commissioner-General Anthony Sarpong, compared with an average of roughly GH¢4bn a month before the reforms were fully implemented.

The increase represents about GH¢2.1bn, or 52.5 per cent, above the previous monthly average — a sizeable improvement for a government attempting to strengthen domestic revenue mobilisation while maintaining fiscal consolidation.

Speaking during a courtesy call by the GRA’s board and management on the Asantehene, Otumfuo Osei Tutu II, at the Manhyia Palace, Sarpong said collections had risen steadily since the implementation of the customs reforms.

“The full implementation started in April 2026. So, between April and June, we are happy to report, and as the Finance Minister, Dr Ato Forson, also echoed in Parliament, that we are collecting about GH¢1.3 to GH¢1.5 billion a month in addition to what we used to collect,” Sarpong said.

“So that means before the implementation, we were collecting about GH¢4 billion a month. As of June, we were collecting GH¢5.5 billion. In the month of July, we collected GH¢6.1 billion, which means that our customs reforms are working.”

The figures suggest that the revenue impact is becoming increasingly material. Moving from GH¢4bn to GH¢5.5bn in June represented an increase of 37.5 per cent, while July’s GH¢6.1bn was 10.9 per cent higher than June.

If the July collection rate were sustained for 12 months, it would imply annualised customs receipts of roughly GH¢73.2bn, compared with about GH¢48bn at the previous GH¢4bn monthly run rate. That comparison is illustrative rather than a forecast, since customs receipts fluctuate with import volumes, exchange rates, commodity prices and economic activity.

AI moves to the centre of customs enforcement

Publican AI represents a shift towards data-led customs administration rather than relying solely on manual valuation and inspection.

GRA officials have previously said the system analyses information including trade documents, historical customs records and transaction data to identify risk indicators associated with undervaluation, misdescription and other customs infractions. It is intended to support rather than replace customs officers.

The potential fiscal significance is considerable. Undervaluation of imported goods reduces the base on which customs duties and other border taxes are assessed. Better detection therefore allows government to raise additional revenue without necessarily increasing statutory tax rates.

For businesses, however, the longer-term credibility of the system will depend on whether AI-assisted valuation produces predictable and transparent outcomes. A technology that reduces discretionary valuation while treating comparable imports consistently could improve both revenue collection and the trading environment.

Sarpong attributed the improvement partly to cooperation from importers, businesses and GRA officials.

VAT becomes the next frontier

The GRA is now preparing to apply a similar technology-driven approach to domestic taxation, where VAT compliance remains a significant weakness.

Sarpong said only about four in every 10 businesses expected to comply with VAT obligations currently do so, leaving a large portion of economic activity outside effective collection.

Some businesses do not charge VAT, while others collect the tax from customers but fail to remit it to the state, he said.

The Authority plans to deploy fiscal electronic devices at businesses and service points to improve transaction monitoring and VAT collection.

“That is going to be a game changer in our VAT administration,” Sarpong said.

The move forms part of a wider digitalisation programme already outlined by the GRA. Its official guidance says Fiscal Electronic Devices will be rolled out to VAT-registered businesses to strengthen compliance, alongside electronic invoicing and other digital systems.

The Commissioner-General had earlier indicated that physical monitoring devices would be deployed at retail outlets under reforms aimed at automating VAT administration.

From enforcement to incentives

GRA is also considering a consumer reward programme designed to make shoppers participants in tax enforcement.

Under the proposed system, consumers who demand and retain VAT receipts could become eligible for rewards from the Authority or government.

Such an approach could address one of the structural weaknesses of VAT collection: transactions that remain invisible when neither the seller nor the buyer has a strong incentive to insist on formal documentation.

By attaching a potential financial benefit to receipts, the government would effectively recruit consumers into the compliance system, making it harder for businesses to suppress taxable transactions.

The initiative would complement Ghana’s wider VAT reforms, which took effect in January. These included the abolition of the Covid-19 Health Recovery Levy, changes to the treatment of the NHIL and GETFund levies and an increase in the VAT-registration threshold for businesses dealing in goods from GH¢200,000 to GH¢750,000.

Revenue gains will face a sustainability test

The early customs numbers provide a potentially important lesson for Ghana’s fiscal strategy: better enforcement can sometimes generate substantial revenue without imposing additional headline taxes.

But the GH¢6.1bn July figure will need to be sustained over several months before the full structural effect of Publican AI can be established. Import volumes, currency movements and changes in economic activity can also influence customs receipts, meaning the entire increase cannot automatically be attributed to AI without a more detailed decomposition.

The stronger test will therefore be whether collections remain consistently above their historical trend and whether the system reduces valuation disputes and leakages while preserving efficient cargo clearance.

If that happens — and if GRA can reproduce similar gains in VAT administration — technology could become one of the most consequential components of Ghana’s domestic revenue strategy.

For a government seeking to rebuild fiscal space after years of debt distress, the distinction matters. Raising tax rates can carry economic and political costs. Collecting taxes already legally due, but previously lost through undervaluation, non-compliance and weak enforcement, offers a potentially less distortionary route to higher revenue.

The GH¢6.1bn collected in July therefore represents more than a monthly customs figure. It is an early test of whether Ghana can use data, automation and artificial intelligence to fundamentally improve the efficiency of the tax state.